But Dr. Tebaldi, a statistician who lives in Colorado, where she works at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, acknowledged that the study might provide little comfort to Northeasterners who experienced the bone-chilling cold during the last week of December and the first week of January.

While Arctic air is milder because of climate change, the question of whether global warming is actually leading to more cold spells has been much debated.

Climate Change Is Complex. We’ve Got Answers to Your Questions.

We know. Global warming is daunting. So here’s a place to start: 17 often-asked questions with some straightforward answers.


Some recent studies have suggested that the loss of Arctic sea ice because of warming could be a factor, by influencing air circulation patterns, weakening the jet stream and allowing more polar air to shift southward, at least in some regions.

But Dr. Tebaldi said her group’s study found no connection to sea-ice loss.

World Weather Attribution is one of a number of scientific teams that in recent years has begun to analyze weather events for signs of the influence of climate change.

The group, with members from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, Princeton University and other institutions as well as Climate Central, has found that global warming increased the likelihood of Hurricane Harvey’s torrential rains, a heat wave in Australia and other events. But some analyses have found little or no effect of climate change, including one of a Somali drought in 2016-17.

The idea behind such rapid studies is to get scientific analysis to the public as soon as possible after an event. In this case, Dr. Tebaldi said, the analysis was even more rapid than usual — published just three days after the cold spell ended — because the researchers used methodologies that had already been developed, and because the study relied only on observations, not on computer models that can take time to run.

Continue reading the main story



Source link

NO COMMENTS

LEAVE A REPLY